Art Cullen.

Northwest headwinds buffet Iowa Republicans a year out from the 2026 midterm elections: Farmers are under stress, grocery prices are high, our rivers are fouled, and voters want better.

The GOP controls the statehouse, the governor’s office and the entire congressional delegation. The courts are stacked. The universities are gagged. Everything should be tied up with a bow.

Anybody who eats knows that hamburger is way expensive. It’s not going to get much cheaper in a year. President Trump blames beef producers. He must believe that a 30-year drought on the Great Plains is a hoax, and that herd liquidation was a mirage. Tyson just shut down beef operations in Lexington, Neb. Even cowboys in western Iowa have to shake their heads at the gilded leader.

Food costs are not going down no matter how many eggs you buy from Turkey or tons of beef you subsidize from Argentina. Trade secret: Food processing demands immigrant labor that Trump and Reynolds are chasing off. That increases costs. Storm Lake’s water rates are doubling, which will not make pork or turkey a better bargain.

Iowa has an export-sensitive ag and manufacturing economy that has been hammered by tariffs. John Deere is not expanding. China will buy our soy when it’s cheap enough. We’re screwed.

Farmers can’t get relief. The USDA reports that it is crunching the numbers on a bailout while producers panic in anticipation of meeting with the banker. Next year is projected to be as bad for net farm income. How many bailouts will it take?

That is not a great foundation for Randy Feenstra’s run for governor.

He also bears the baggage of Gov. Kim Reynolds, the most unpopular governor in America for a long time running. Rising property taxes, falling test scores, running young people off in droves, the water isn’t fit to drink, and cancer is on the rise.

If Democrats can’t win with this …

Well, they certainly can blow it. They are at a steep deficit to the Republicans in voter registration. Iowa has been decidedly red for a decade.

Democrat Rob Sand has the money to win the governor’s race but the base is nervous that he is not distinguishing himself. He talks mainly on social media about what he eats. If you ask voters what the state auditor stands for, it is non-partisanship and Jesus. That does not necessarily drive activists to knock on doors for you when snow flies sideways. Congressional candidate Sara Trone Garriott, D-West Des Moines, said that she hears about water quality all the time, according to Iowa Capitol Dispatch.

“There’s more folks who are paying attention,” she said. “For the people who have been doing this for a very long time, it’s an opportunity to engage those new people and those new voices in advocacy.”

Hint. Hint.

Cancer, anybody?

Hello out there!

Three of the four congressional seats should be closely contested this year. The fourth district will have an open seat with Feenstra running for governor, and I suppose you just never know but the Las Vegas money is not on the Democrat.

Three strong Democrats are vying to run against Rep. Ashley Hinson for the US Senate, as incumbent Republican Joni Ernst is pursuing other interests.

Generic congressional polls nationally show a strong preference for Democrats. It does not appear that Republicans can gerrymander enough to maintain control of the US House. A civil war within. MAGA claimed Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene as a casualty. Trump is starting to look like a drag on the ticket.

Republicans surely will maintain control of the Iowa Legislature, the gaps are so wide. They know they are losing ground. Still, Feenstra stands tall with Trump who dumps on cattlemen and can’t seem to dish out funds to help soybean growers on a timely basis. They could see this coming but haven’t done anything. That sour taste will linger.

Iowa is at a significant intersection after veering off so hard to the right. The Moms for Liberty got turned back in repeated school board elections. Catelin Drey just flipped a Senate seat in Sioux City (where snowflakes need not apply) from red to blue. With abortion banned, trans people shunned, immigrants in fear and guns in the courthouse, what galaxies are left to conquer?

It feels like a whiplash coming back the other direction. It would be greatly premature to declare MAGA code blue in Iowa, but people are figuring out that Trump is doing us no favors. The overreach that made Reynolds so unpopular is provoking voters to reconsider. They hate our politics. Sand claims to be tacking for center by so far avoiding pesky details on matters like water quality and cancer. We know where Feenstra stands tall, with Trump and Reynolds, which is not the best place to be found standing with the mess they are leaving at our feet.

Art Cullen is editor of the Storm Lake Times Pilot newspaper, where this column first appeared. It is republished here through the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative. Please consider subscribing to the collaborative at iowawriters.substack.com and the authors’ blogs to support their work.